Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7502ae0a1045f0bedda2f404e204ba292add52ae5628e1176fee43ab2d66b6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 44c | 2,850$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 56c | 2,661$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 43c | 1,499$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 56c | 1,142$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.58 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed Yes | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 57c | 904.28$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.88 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 44c | 449.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 43c | 325.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 56c | 322.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 39c | 301.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 57c | 299.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.99 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 42c | 182.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…6c34backed No | 60c | 166.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 56c | 152.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…98f1backed Yes | 43c | 133.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 41c | 91.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…7e3bbacked Yes | 43c | 74.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 42c | 60.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +84%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 43c | 53.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 44c | 47.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3963…6241backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 42c | 45.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…0b9ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b44…4ff4backed Yes | 43c | 40.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 34c | 36.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…8e01backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e9…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 29.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 60c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…84ffbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…2011backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Larnaka win on 2025-08-27?this page
- Will AEK Larnaka vs. Brann end in a draw?No won
- Will Brann win on 2025-08-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.