Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fddd71cf55d8c378b842ea0c69680a438512081afb0c89d1c0c58ca2d4384fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 0c | 53,206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 619.76$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 565.25$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 551.44$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 66c | 447.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 434.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 411.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 350.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 298.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 279.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 45c | 251.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 53c | 229.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 62c | 218.93$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 212.13$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 207.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 58c | 188.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 170.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 167.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 141.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 61c | 135.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 67c | 128.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 52c | 122.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 49c | 120.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 112.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 100.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 97.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 49c | 95.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 58c | 95.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 46c | 95.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 51c | 95.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 92.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 88.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 24c | 70.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 27c | 66.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 60.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 58.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 46c | 57.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 57.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 56.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 55.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…72e2backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 30c | 47.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 43.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 72c | 43.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…f452backed Yes | 44c | 42.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 39c | 42.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…79a0backed Yes | 29c | 41.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 57c | 40.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 39.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 34c | 38.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 36.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 58c | 36.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 35.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 47c | 34.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 58c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 33.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…0f40backed No | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…3e97backed No | 59c | 30.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…8119backed No | 41c | 26.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6656…4d57backed Yes | 58c | 25.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…9569backed No | 64c | 24.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…bedcbacked No | 62c | 24.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…0a1bbacked No | 58c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked Yes | 61c | 22.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 60c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…a43cbacked No | 68c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 53c | 22.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 61c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed No | 62c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 66c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 60c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 62c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed No | 76c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.