TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes0c53,206$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.111752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c619.76$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.596,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c565.25$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c551.44$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.811,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No66c447.65$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.2510569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes31c434.52$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes30c411.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.821,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c350.67$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes27c298.39$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.391,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c279.6$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No45c251.28$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes53c229.16$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.631346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked No62c218.93$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1933058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No69c212.13$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3811659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c207.41$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed No58c188.39$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.173043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c170.97$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.462,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes41c167.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No77c141.93$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.824370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No61c135.37$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4162555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No67c128.46$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9731542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes52c122.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.062962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes49c120.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.822343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No79c112.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7861760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes47c100.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1429640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No56c97.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.182,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked No49c95.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.169047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes58c95.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5618740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes46c95.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.498250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes51c95.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5520866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes47c92.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No56c88.24$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes24c70.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1543859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes27c66.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1611220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes29c65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No62c60.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.621,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c59.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.094,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c58.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.384,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…7efcbacked No46c57.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.263770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes26c57.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.781,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c56.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No67c55.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1654966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes40c54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes53c53.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.593148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05bd…72e2backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No45c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes30c47.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes33c46.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c43.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.942,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No72c43.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0328954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a3…f452backed Yes44c42.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes39c42.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.288727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf516…79a0backed Yes29c41.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c41.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.551,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b3…532cbacked No57c40.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.212045%9 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe18d…960abacked Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes29c39.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6931029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes34c38.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.943132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No68c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2960236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes35c36.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No58c36.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.139656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No76c35.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.632,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No47c34.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e6…6779backed No58c33.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.043060%18 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No73c33.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1941460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd753…0f40backed No60c33.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9e…3e97backed No59c30.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.439541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes43c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.472040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes37c28.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.562339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b05…d7a7backed No56c26.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.783366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x501b…8119backed No41c26.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6656…4d57backed Yes58c25.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x841b…9569backed No64c24.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e23…bedcbacked No62c24.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f0…0a1bbacked No58c23.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+106.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c4…293dbacked Yes61c22.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.813971.8%28 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes60c22.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4329770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d8…a43cbacked No68c22.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No53c22.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.316740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No73c21.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked No61c20.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.969056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2031…cfd7backed No62c20.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.631650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x750d…70f0backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No66c19.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.718042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No58c19.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No60c18.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.424355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed No62c16.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3316944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No72c15.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3833567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed No76c15.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.685450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.