Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f070834ab67db39d709de4cee9d8e6706f043085129b50264211e003e2b6fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 928.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 817.28$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 572.67$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed No | 64c | 539.21$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 489.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 476.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 24c | 399.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 378.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 353.57$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 56c | 301.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 239.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 236.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 230.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 31c | 203.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 64c | 202.16$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 181.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 76c | 176.28$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 174.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 46c | 171.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 34c | 166.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 77c | 148.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 148.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 61c | 139.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 135.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 25c | 133.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 125.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 60c | 120.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 115.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…8698backed Yes | 53c | 108.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 107.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 99.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 19c | 99.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 66c | 87.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 34c | 84.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed No | 69c | 84.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 16c | 81.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 78.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 72.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 71.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 70c | 69.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 68.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 66.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe67b…81ffbacked Yes | 36c | 65.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 65.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…f456backed Yes | 25c | 62.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 31c | 57.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 57.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 55.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 54.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 48.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 41c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 35c | 42.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 33c | 42.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 33c | 41.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 66c | 40.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 46c | 38.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 66c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 56c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 33.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…c9a6backed Yes | 46c | 32.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…7283backed No | 63c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0e6ebacked No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 28.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 60c | 27.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 62c | 26.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…86babacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 58c | 25.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 44c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 47c | 24.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c1…51f6backed Yes | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 24.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 60c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 74c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed No | 76c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.