Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c9d06557aaf08a226da7132b7c20b551594bd6d5505449e8de771d72b283a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 902.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 548.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 542.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 373.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 369.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 11c | 333.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 18c | 326.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.66 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 8c | 287.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 8c | 276.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.56 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 253.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 247.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 238.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 8c | 181.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 18c | 174.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 166.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 7c | 157.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 36c | 148.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 142.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 137.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 123.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 115.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 113.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 14c | 109.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 11c | 105.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 104.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 12c | 99.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 14c | 98.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 71c | 93.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 68.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 38c | 63.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 24c | 60.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 35c | 57.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 33c | 50.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 27c | 49.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 66c | 48.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 39.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 60c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 61c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 41c | 27.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 62c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 18.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 15.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…b462backed No | 72c | 15.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…8ce1backed No | 76c | 14.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.