Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff23a4c201abfc2a92fcf79ba5165679eb91920fbe5b784a44bbc41fde8c12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 605.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 310.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 22c | 304.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 47c | 210.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 208.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 167.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 161.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 60c | 122.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 121.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 119.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 58c | 109.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 20c | 99.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 53c | 89.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 73c | 79.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed Yes | 27c | 79.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…9f69backed Yes | 70c | 70.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 45c | 69.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 74c | 67.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 67.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 73c | 65.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…a372backed No | 79c | 62.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 61c | 60.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed No | 76c | 56.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 37c | 54.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 30c | 53.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 52.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 51.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f98backed No | 75c | 51.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…d594backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 80c | 45.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 38c | 41.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 27c | 37.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 59c | 32.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 56c | 30.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 70c | 29.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 73c | 25.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab4…99e3backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 22.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 20.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 18.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.