Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccbca7d8d2828c55d9f4bea98f4bbdd3f4025733fb560784bdbafb4d7ee3fc80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 35c | 718.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 367.5$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 283.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 178.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 178.17$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 8c | 163.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 161.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…8c18backed Yes | 45c | 155.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 35c | 153.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 148.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 146.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406d…a372backed Yes | 9c | 145.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 135.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 31c | 133.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 123.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 25c | 123.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 68c | 116$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 111.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 110.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 35c | 83.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 35c | 78.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 75.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 64.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f98backed Yes | 21c | 61.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 25c | 58.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 49.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 46.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 40.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 37.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 27.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 27.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 22.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 19.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.