Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20259f958e2de9e2c57e915636d701b2bfbc3429f69ef5e9c5be93689e708965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6319…d371backed Yes | 37c | 3,088$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 63c | 2,750$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.99 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked No | 65c | 2,562$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,318$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.48 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed No | 63c | 1,297$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Yes | 36c | 1,094$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,041$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.59 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 28c | 742.83$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 37c | 526.77$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…84cebacked No | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 34c | 409.5$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 37c | 390.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 64c | 362.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 37c | 359.21$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 395 | 49.9%197 W · 198 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 64c | 277.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 230.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 64c | 162$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Yes | 8c | 141$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +7.1wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 101.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 36c | 87.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 37c | 56.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 387 | 49.6%192 W · 195 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed No | 64c | 44.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 65c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Yes | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +8.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed No | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.