Venezuela · resolved market
María Corina Machado arrested before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205a4fddefcb5c63223dab0edd81f6d568f6471652a84a85f179ca9ca91c36d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 69c | 5,151$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 30c | 4,620$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 12c | 4,043$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,146$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 31c | 2,148$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,388$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,352$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 68c | 910.96$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 900$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 22c | 783.72$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 32c | 780$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 60c | 555$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 45c | 518.65$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 16c | 485.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 10c | 443$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…602dbacked Yes | 8c | 390$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 9c | 237.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 6c | 209.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…ee93backed No | 46c | 208.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 52c | 200.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed No | 56c | 193.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…d85abacked Yes | 8c | 134.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 31c | 133.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…83ffbacked Yes | 39c | 131.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…81e7backed Yes | 12c | 124.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…a4d7backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 48c | 92.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…cc2cbacked Yes | 32c | 79.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked No | 52c | 78.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…3d89backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…8b36backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58f…c469backed No | 48c | 49.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 56c | 47.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 44c | 46.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…be05backed Yes | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…953dbacked No | 69c | 34.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 52c | 34.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…ba27backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…7524backed No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.