Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 145.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207b57b8694cc2086f33704778caeefa55dfbccde906c59d460774c2fa96bdaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 45c | 3,509$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.13 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 2,150$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.2 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 56c | 1,951$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.48 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Under | 49c | 661.39$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.08 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…6266backed Over | 57c | 236.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 182.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…c9eebacked Over | 58c | 169.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b2…b87ebacked Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…adadbacked Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 29c | 109.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 55c | 76.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 43c | 60.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 27c | 60.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked Under | 43c | 59.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 43c | 57.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 43c | 57.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Over | 64c | 29.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 60c | 24.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 145.5this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin Badgers won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.