TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wisconsin Badgersof Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,146
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,146 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan State Spartans54c14,585$7,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,843.311,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers47c6,288$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.2112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Wisconsin Badgers45c5,004$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.5674152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wisconsin Badgers45c2,406$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3135,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans56c1,900$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.197047.1%33 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7652,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Wisconsin Badgers49c1,100$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.041764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Wisconsin Badgers46c863.86$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.721,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Wisconsin Badgers45c800$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43982048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Wisconsin Badgers49c629.26$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7844549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Michigan State Spartans50c568.03$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.042,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Michigan State Spartans51c527.3$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8457248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Michigan State Spartans55c523.68$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.028843.2%38 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da1…339ebacked Michigan State Spartans54c511.07$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.933342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wisconsin Badgers46c506.07$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2827755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Wisconsin Badgers46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2705154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wisconsin Badgers45c333.82$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.91,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wisconsin Badgers45c318.63$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.223,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Michigan State Spartans53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597042.9%30 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Wisconsin Badgers47c208.51$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5140755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State Spartans52c194.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.457448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans53c188.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.914,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Wisconsin Badgers46c176$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0492246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Michigan State Spartans52c170.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8310753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b23…cad2backed Wisconsin Badgers45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.333141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wisconsin Badgers46c124.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5330746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Wisconsin Badgers49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5129442.9%126 W · 168 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ea…c2efbacked Michigan State Spartans53c95.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4123054.3%125 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Michigan State Spartans55c91.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Wisconsin Badgers45c82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.110652.8%56 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf926…fb21backed Wisconsin Badgers47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.48333.7%28 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Wisconsin Badgers46c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4920248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Michigan State Spartans51c69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.193141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…1e06backed Michigan State Spartans54c64.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Wisconsin Badgers51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8221152.1%110 W · 101 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Wisconsin Badgers46c57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.785349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wisconsin Badgers59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.751,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Wisconsin Badgers44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.459945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Michigan State Spartans54c40.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224050%20 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Michigan State Spartans54c40.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.925350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d3…09f9backed Wisconsin Badgers49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.43850%19 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7774…15d4backed Michigan State Spartans53c37.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Wisconsin Badgers51c37.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1555840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Wisconsin Badgers48c35.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Michigan State Spartans53c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.556446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8461…c6e4backed Michigan State Spartans52c33.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1818245.1%82 W · 100 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Wisconsin Badgers47c31.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.921,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Wisconsin Badgers47c31.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.937835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Michigan State Spartans53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.934952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240a…9e0bbacked Michigan State Spartans53c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd286…4c1bbacked Wisconsin Badgers51c20.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1413561.5%83 W · 52 L+13.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Michigan State Spartans52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.462753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa682…0e32backed Michigan State Spartans53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.