Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a1e6bac40f8c4f9e35398ddb565143a945ee74d025c6f12a82a4958258103a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 6,858$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.61 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 3,620$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 2,129$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.21 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 1,897$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 800.2$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.39per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 727.68$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.73 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 440$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 277.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.78 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…9f77backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 153.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…1da8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 111.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf6…d7f7backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 104.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 93.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 93.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 57c | 79.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 59.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 55.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 52.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 45.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 44.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 30.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin Badgers won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.