Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e289dccff6f567687e6a1fab8bac7559cefe2e56a27cd90c4410c0cf0652d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 51c | 42,002$21,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,620.8 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 48c | 27,725$13,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,345.86 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Under | 48c | 7,400$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 49c | 6,240$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.6 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 5,452$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,932.01 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.99 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,422$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.36 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 52c | 4,175$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 2,641$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.53 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 4c | 630$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 48c | 548.75$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.35 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 53c | 504$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.12 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 450$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.5 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Under | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 381.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.11 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 270$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Over | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0e…152ebacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 50c | 138.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 24c | 71.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…6894backed Over | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 48c | 57.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Over | 49c | 37.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 48c | 37.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…ff05backed Over | 46c | 27.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 49c | 25.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 23.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 148.5this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin Badgers won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.