WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d44e8a5439d0d405e44dd04e04080f774e8feb3445928f37f53cc820ba869e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Stormof Los Angeles Sparks, Seattle Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 4,045$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.75 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 2,094$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.35 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 2,061$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 2,022$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.91 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 1,071$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 1,036$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 569.43$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…2cbabacked Seattle Storm | 53c | 532$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.04 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 523.98$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.75 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 504.77$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.06 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…2e7ebacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 308.58$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 293.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Storm | 50c | 238.5$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Seattle Storm | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 183.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Seattle Storm | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 146.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…cc69backed Seattle Storm | 71c | 119$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Seattle Storm | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Sparks | 27c | 95.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 91.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…63c2backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 66.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 63.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Storm | 50c | 45.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Seattle Storm | 52c | 43.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 38.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Seattle Storm | 57c | 34.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 24.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Seattle Storm | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5)this page
- Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles SparksSeattle Storm won
- Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 172.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 173.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5Under won
- Seattle Storm vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-3.5)Seattle Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.