Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20dd73594c30b2bfb89e5097b64edb999eed8dc92574b63486eb52569a7f1563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 2c | 955.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 661.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 504.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 8c | 332.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 279.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 277.55$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 70c | 270.61$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 213.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 199.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 8c | 199.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 185.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 182.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 9c | 148$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 143.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 32c | 137.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 126.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 71c | 114.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 28c | 97.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 93.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 31c | 81.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 25c | 74.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 71c | 69.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 21c | 60.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 21c | 58.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 57.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 50.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…603cbacked Yes | 30c | 50.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 74c | 48.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 48.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 46.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 46.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 45.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 74c | 43.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 67c | 40.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 34.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 69c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 65c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed No | 72c | 25.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 72c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 71c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1143…f54cbacked No | 69c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.