Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbf77c7bf2af627557032d5ce15b2650dbf61fa8cc85e1cdb3ebe2fdca419296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,276$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 67c | 844.88$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.16 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 29c | 535.61$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.76 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 22c | 503.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.82 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 72c | 489.7$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 18c | 454.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.55 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 417.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 352.83$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 349$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 311.62$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 16c | 295.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 18c | 282.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 277.68$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 264.82$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 41c | 252.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 63c | 251.87$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 227.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 57c | 224.76$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 205.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 188.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 185$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 20c | 173.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 6c | 173.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 149.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 35c | 134.63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 67c | 132.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 129.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 78c | 128.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 18c | 119.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 117.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 115.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 112.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 78c | 110$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 40c | 102.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 55c | 97.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 97.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 34c | 94.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 89.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 84.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 18c | 81.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 78.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 74.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 80c | 69.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 68.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed Yes | 74c | 67.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…8f23backed Yes | 17c | 66.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 28c | 62.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 27c | 56.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 37c | 51.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…9e9bbacked Yes | 31c | 51.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 47.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 42.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 80c | 39.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 68c | 39.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 33.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 66c | 33.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 32.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 30.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 52c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 69c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.