Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e497f2b7723a67a9364e835b9e959aa87083bfd567ea6f4635f76325c5559c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,142$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 13c | 1,098$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.14 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,079$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 840.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 482.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 402.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 371.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 13c | 324.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 11c | 300.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 12c | 240.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 204.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 11c | 178.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 15c | 175.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 160.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…8c1ebacked Yes | 7c | 148.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 127.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 118.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 29c | 110.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 109.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 28c | 97.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 95.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 92.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 84.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 66c | 56.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 76c | 49.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…8c84backed No | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.