Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b9b0cbc15a73227d7391d95cd0bc7647fc66187eb0c5832e29edd51cbc01c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 0c | 6,382$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 51c | 564.84$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.52 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 467.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 36c | 462.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.09 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 367.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 68c | 304.46$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 272.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 42c | 199.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 175.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 163.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 42c | 132.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 80c | 115.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 76c | 108.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 77c | 104.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 64c | 101.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 78c | 59.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 50.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 40c | 48.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed Yes | 77c | 44.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 39.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…5dc1backed Yes | 60c | 39.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 55c | 39.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 56c | 39.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 63c | 38.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 62c | 37.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 66c | 36.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 42c | 36.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 50c | 34.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 68c | 34.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 38c | 33.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 61c | 31.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 40c | 30.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed No | 80c | 30.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e35…24a7backed Yes | 67c | 28.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 71c | 27.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed No | 37c | 27.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked Yes | 73c | 27.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 26.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 50c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…53a2backed Yes | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 51c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed Yes | 66c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 67c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 64c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7b76backed No | 58c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 71c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…515ebacked Yes | 62c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.