Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd6129f1e53bb3148849e7e2bad2c7ead87f359f25d79bfe0b8c507f2850041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No | 63c | 1,900$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.45 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 44c | 1,658$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 73c | 1,555$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 1,510$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.49 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…9d35backed Yes | 2c | 917.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +3,161.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…1a76backed Yes | 72c | 591.74$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 43c | 568.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.11 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 567.52$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 15c | 524.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 489.2$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 46c | 472.88$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.7 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 34c | 442.05$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.73 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 47c | 408.58$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.37 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 37c | 400.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.57 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 46c | 385.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 372.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.94 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 368.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 27c | 337.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 55c | 292.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 271.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 77c | 251.81$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…0743backed Yes | 72c | 248.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 242.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.83 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 52c | 239.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 239.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed Yes | 76c | 213$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Yes | 8c | 212.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 15c | 208.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 68c | 202.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 51c | 202.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 197.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed No | 52c | 195.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 46c | 174.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 174.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 170.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 168.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…98d0backed No | 32c | 168.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 48c | 162.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 37c | 158.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed No | 54c | 145.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 67c | 145.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 16c | 138.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed Yes | 10c | 124.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 120.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked No | 43c | 118.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 117.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 17c | 109.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 63c | 108.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf70…4b1cbacked Yes | 57c | 99.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 66c | 99.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 48c | 94.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…555dbacked No | 15c | 93.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 51c | 92.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 20c | 87.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 35c | 86.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed Yes | 51c | 81.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…64a9backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 43c | 79.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 78.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 77.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 45c | 76.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 74c | 75.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 39c | 75.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed No | 63c | 63.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 48c | 62.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 36c | 60.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…306ebacked No | 30c | 60.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…12cebacked Yes | 52c | 58.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 70c | 52.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 58c | 49.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 60c | 47.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 43c | 43.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 60c | 43.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 48c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 64c | 37.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed No | 65c | 35.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 54c | 34.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed No | 57c | 34.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 49c | 30.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb221…4604backed No | 55c | 28.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…33a9backed Yes | 70c | 27.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 71c | 27.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 60c | 23.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 63c | 23.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 63c | 23.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee3…6616backed Yes | 50c | 23.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…999bbacked No | 58c | 22.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 55c | 20.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.