Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x212000bffae05b954a6b51f449cf966cc280051a41323ae2a37a01cf1cd477b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Rune Eaters, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 1,164$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked MODUS | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.98 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked MODUS | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.17 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 654.06$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.2 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 462.9$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.94 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters | 40c | 419.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked MODUS | 70c | 339.69$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 293.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed MODUS | 51c | 293.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed MODUS | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 195$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 56c | 183.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 182.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rune Eaters | 20c | 176.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 170.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed MODUS | 50c | 156.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Rune Eaters | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed MODUS | 54c | 102.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed MODUS | 63c | 76.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed MODUS | 47c | 71.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 64.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Rune Eaters | 45c | 58.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rune Eaters | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 69c | 48.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed MODUS | 47c | 48.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed MODUS | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Rune Eaters | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…71a0backed Rune Eaters | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked MODUS | 51c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…7a55backed MODUS | 48c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…54b3backed MODUS | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Rune Eaters | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed MODUS | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMODUS won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.