Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x961e39bda6c8ee6396a0167f0d67ccfe111dbe13d4f660e1ea832ee8ec58ba04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof Rune Eaters, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Rune Eaters | 48c | 1,508$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.99 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…75f2backed Rune Eaters | 6c | 1,302$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 1,107$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.8 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked MODUS | 59c | 655.62$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked MODUS | 52c | 587.09$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.63 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked MODUS | 42c | 540.37$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.8 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MODUS | 41c | 499.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.98 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 249.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…69cdbacked Rune Eaters | 56c | 222.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Rune Eaters | 49c | 196.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 194.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…c353backed MODUS | 49c | 152.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked MODUS | 44c | 150.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed MODUS | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed MODUS | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS | 52c | 97.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Rune Eaters | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MODUS | 44c | 83.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed MODUS | 47c | 83.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…7f52backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 78.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 69.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 57.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 54.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 41c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed MODUS | 77c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 41.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 32.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 27.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Rune Eaters | 48c | 21.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 92 | 10.9%10 W · 82 L | -18.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rune Eaters | 65c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMODUS won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.