Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2122eb4e137f36033607a654c9fb1d2cba472b9b6bc921d24f82fcbaa11e3b92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 2,612$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.94 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 397.62$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 216.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 214$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 209.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 175.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 75c | 163.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 148$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…a45ebacked Yes | 63c | 143.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 74c | 107$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 97.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed Yes | 45c | 78.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 36c | 72.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…c2a2backed No | 36c | 52.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 46.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 45.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…11afbacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 42c | 42.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 40c | 38.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 41c | 32.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 57c | 29.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 74c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.