Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x214f7608bc7b2083d40ab89abf3e5d079ac627fc17862428c1cee51cac9950d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 444.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 219.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 214.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 180.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 70c | 178.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 158.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 155.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 150.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 121.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 109.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 27c | 108.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 99.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 27c | 98.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 96.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 58c | 96.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 23c | 92.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 82.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 26c | 74.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 60.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 57c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 25c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 77c | 38.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 56c | 32.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 78c | 30.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 53c | 29.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 79c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 27.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 60c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 74c | 23.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 22.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…a1d6backed No | 54c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 19.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 80c | 18.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 68c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 16.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 79c | 14.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.