Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21612fd9cd612228c303841af71dc4e59c09a9cf4a7f8a57f403740712a5a856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Otterof Supernova, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova | 53c | 4,583$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.26 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Blue Otter | 58c | 4,307$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.98 | 510 | 44.1%225 W · 285 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Supernova | 42c | 1,106$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.69 | 507 | 49.7%252 W · 255 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Supernova | 1c | 921.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 456 | 18.9%86 W · 370 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Blue Otter | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.22 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…fc38backed Supernova | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Blue Otter | 24c | 484.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.89 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…dacfbacked Supernova | 77c | 361.45$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 289 | 65.1%188 W · 101 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Blue Otter | 64c | 334.06$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 486 | 52.1%253 W · 233 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…4500backed Blue Otter | 25c | 242.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Blue Otter | 22c | 237$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.86 | 450 | 41.1%185 W · 265 L | -25.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…a5a2backed Supernova | 33c | 167.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Blue Otter | 74c | 108.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Blue Otter | 47c | 106.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 419 | 45.1%189 W · 230 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Blue Otter | 76c | 104.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 621 | 58.8%365 W · 256 L | +32.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Blue Otter | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Supernova | 64c | 83.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 732 | 37.7%276 W · 456 L | -51.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Supernova | 79c | 82.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 625 | 58.7%367 W · 258 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b89…a4cdbacked Blue Otter | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 710 | 57%405 W · 305 L | +41.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Supernova | 45c | 72.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 505 | 49.3%249 W · 256 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Supernova | 75c | 54.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…a844backed Supernova | 57c | 52.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…de20backed Supernova | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 274 | 55.8%153 W · 121 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Blue Otter | 59c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: SN (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonSupernova won
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.