Lol · resolved market
LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352ca0ee2e17ab77d2553851db58ecd7f77bf2ecec541e51929d3b2c80568998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Supernovaof Supernova, Blue Otter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Blue Otter | 20c | 5,174$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.76 | 510 | 44.1%225 W · 285 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Supernova | 78c | 4,468$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.72 | 1,940 | 48.1%934 W · 1,006 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Blue Otter | 4c | 2,918$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 456 | 18.9%86 W · 370 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Blue Otter | 26c | 1,416$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…aba4backed Supernova | 59c | 1,000$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Supernova | 80c | 831.25$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Supernova | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Blue Otter | 20c | 598.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 171 | 36.3%62 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed Blue Otter | 24c | 575$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.05 | 450 | 41.1%185 W · 265 L | -25.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…ad47backed Blue Otter | 20c | 484.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Supernova | 80c | 411.47$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Supernova | 64c | 400$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Blue Otter | 29c | 304.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1,310 | 37.3%489 W · 821 L | -86.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…4c70backed Supernova | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Blue Otter | 40c | 246.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 465 | 52.7%245 W · 220 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b89…a4cdbacked Supernova | 70c | 214.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 710 | 57%405 W · 305 L | +41.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Supernova | 76c | 204.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Supernova | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…3044backed Supernova | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Blue Otter | 17c | 199.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Blue Otter | 11c | 199.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 476 | 30.7%146 W · 330 L | -13.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Supernova | 73c | 165.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 237 | 48.5%115 W · 122 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…5085backed Blue Otter | 41c | 152.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 236 | 56.8%134 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d2…4186backed Blue Otter | 34c | 150.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…855fbacked Blue Otter | 17c | 149.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08db…296fbacked Supernova | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Blue Otter | 17c | 120.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Blue Otter | 15c | 118.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Blue Otter | 17c | 107.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0b…ef0cbacked Blue Otter | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 189 | 42.3%80 W · 109 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Blue Otter | 17c | 96.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 732 | 37.7%276 W · 456 L | -51.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Blue Otter | 31c | 92.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 208 | 54.3%113 W · 95 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed Blue Otter | 17c | 88.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Supernova | 75c | 87.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Supernova | 76c | 86.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,372 | 48.6%667 W · 705 L | +57.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Blue Otter | 13c | 82.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Supernova | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,241 | 52.7%654 W · 587 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Blue Otter | 25c | 79.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…a7cdbacked Blue Otter | 16c | 69.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 644 | 35.4%228 W · 416 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed Blue Otter | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 253 | 45.8%116 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…0dcabacked Blue Otter | 32c | 67.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…1cc4backed Supernova | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 149 | 72.5%108 W · 41 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Supernova | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c1…a5a2backed Blue Otter | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Supernova | 80c | 55.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 441 | 29.5%130 W · 311 L | -45.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Blue Otter | 35c | 51.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Supernova | 74c | 50.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 238 | 31.5%75 W · 163 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Blue Otter | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 366 | 60.1%220 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Blue Otter | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 618 | 49.8%308 W · 310 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…14ffbacked Blue Otter | 39c | 43.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Supernova | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Supernova | 70c | 39.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Supernova | 70c | 39.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,543 | 54.8%845 W · 698 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…b387backed Supernova | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 647 | 49.5%320 W · 327 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…a844backed Supernova | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Supernova | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4698…9b1ebacked Supernova | 70c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Supernova | 70c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 143 | 33.6%48 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…ced8backed Supernova | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 323 | 71.2%230 W · 93 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Supernova | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 110 | 90.9%100 W · 10 L | +16.8wins | +0.15per pick | 76cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Supernova | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…e418backed Supernova | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Seasonthis page
- Game Handicap: SN (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5)Blue Otter won
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 1 WinnerSupernova won
- LoL: Supernova vs Blue Otter - Game 2 WinnerBlue Otter won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.