Mls · resolved market
Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2169df1d02023339463ac069899afdb31307f006bb42252a4bbdf18cf4dae4f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof New York City FC, FC Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York City FC | 11c | 13,774$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.43 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York City FC | 13c | 4,863$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York City FC | 11c | 1,745$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.14 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked New York City FC | 17c | 482$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York City FC | 21c | 479.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked New York City FC | 11c | 227.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed New York City FC | 14c | 205.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked New York City FC | 20c | 121.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked New York City FC | 10c | 120.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed New York City FC | 31c | 109.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed New York City FC | 41c | 79.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York City FC | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed FC Cincinnati | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Cincinnati | 77c | 38.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed FC Cincinnati | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed New York City FC | 40c | 33.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed New York City FC | 39c | 27.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed FC Cincinnati | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)this page
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.