Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b6dff3117421a44e200ed106bc36bae1c808ecccccfec0237262d3ed50eeb2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 56c | 1,413$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 1,237$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 37c | 780.16$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.5 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 63c | 745.31$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.55 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 371.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 317.6$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 44c | 273$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 228.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 40c | 212.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 62c | 180$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 137.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 107.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 39c | 88.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 39c | 86.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 15c | 84.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 38c | 76.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 32c | 74.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 48c | 74.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 48c | 43.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 37c | 39.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…0921backed Under | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 73c | 31.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 60c | 26.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…d107backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5this page
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.