Mls · resolved market
New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f2438ab212dcdf04fd4fb9e968720e6cfa415e5b8d03185c7c65129330f7c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 65c | 3,316$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.41 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,847$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 1,706$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.48 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 1,549$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.95 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 24c | 1,192$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.82 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 28c | 1,129$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.41 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 79c | 820$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.8 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 20c | 476$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 12c | 383.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 80c | 380.75$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.6 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 54c | 300$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 42c | 241.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 241.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 79c | 180$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…ef1abacked Under | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 62c | 119.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 51c | 116.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 39c | 112.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…ce6abacked Over | 35c | 94.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 21c | 90.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 90.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Over | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 66.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 54.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 35c | 53.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 35c | 53.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 51c | 43.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 39.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 53c | 29.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 80c | 13.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York City FC vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)New York City FC won
- Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.