Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216ae32f50207714addd9eda191f1e16bc40dcf13b2878e9848829b6d7d556e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,552 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,124$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 7c | 415.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 341.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 11c | 293.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 285.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 261$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 240.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 237.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 208.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 25c | 200.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 29c | 170.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 22c | 120.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 107.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 104.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 16c | 101.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 88.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 74c | 85.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 85.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 72c | 82.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 77.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 72.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 65.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 63.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 32c | 63.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 60.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 79c | 57.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 55.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…dc39backed Yes | 23c | 52.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 47.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 30c | 43.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 28c | 42.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 28c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 28c | 37.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 28c | 37.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 80c | 37.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 36.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 34.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 30.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 25.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 74c | 24.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 74c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 72c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 74c | 13.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.