Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe223a8987e12e89dbfaf8bea76da323e5fc7e55220b80207e91f28b20ec01d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,103 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 4c | 1,135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 57c | 415.75$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.47 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 315.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 261$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 258.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 239.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 77c | 219.95$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 47c | 212.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 48c | 206.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 78c | 202.3$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 33c | 200.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 180.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 23c | 176.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 162.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 155.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 153.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 63c | 143.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 34c | 130.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 124.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 122.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 119.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 61c | 116.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed No | 41c | 115.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 110.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 54c | 109.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 108.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 43c | 106$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…73a4backed No | 49c | 102.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 38c | 95.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 15c | 78.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 20c | 71.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 22c | 69.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 43c | 65.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 47c | 61.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 49c | 60.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 60.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 37c | 57.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 60c | 56.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 40c | 54.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 51.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 20c | 51.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 61c | 48.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 46.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 65c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 31c | 45.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 44.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 64c | 41.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 34c | 36.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 37c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 32.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…4af6backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 63c | 31.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 59c | 30.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…37a4backed Yes | 61c | 30.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2e…d1a1backed Yes | 63c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 39c | 26.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe476…bbe7backed No | 49c | 24.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 46c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 75c | 22.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 70c | 20.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 55c | 18.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 18.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 17.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 65c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 14.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.