Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21acd07725ede8fc1ac353d2560875cb06ddebc2452d5b0782ef2e5f1c6d288f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 1,367$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 301.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 294.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 78c | 284.36$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 195.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 150.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 124.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 113.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 98.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 91.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 15c | 71.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 17c | 64.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 63.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 57.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 52.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 46.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 42.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 35.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 34.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 77c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…247dbacked No | 79c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 79c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.