Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ead7f0501f85bb94df2608a107adfade96d7c3008a98ef9db39344413c6702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 2c | 1,535$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.34 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 833$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 62c | 656.07$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.82 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 627.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…2015backed No | 65c | 474.46$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 50c | 467.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 14c | 449.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 406.08$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.97 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 7c | 393.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.72 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 27c | 376.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.12 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 296.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…efc9backed No | 12c | 282.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 274.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 201.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 41c | 199.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 5c | 190.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.73 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 13c | 174.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 70c | 149.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 142.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 59c | 139.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 29c | 139.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 75c | 129.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 27c | 127.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52a…43dfbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 32c | 108.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 11c | 102.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 98.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 59c | 96.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 32c | 95.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 63c | 93.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 49c | 82.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 75.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 29c | 69.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 69c | 69.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 42c | 66.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 46c | 61.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 57.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 38c | 56.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 61c | 50.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed No | 46c | 46.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed No | 75c | 45.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 59cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…bc78backed Yes | 59c | 37.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 49c | 37.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 35c | 33.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 40c | 26.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 50c | 23.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…e829backed Yes | 52c | 19.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +177.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 66c | 15.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.