Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x989ce11ee6f8cf7ec2c976b4de77874279f63237b28dc8c00bfeb64819b64b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 72c | 493$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 290.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 288.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 16c | 238.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 236.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 208.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 29c | 194.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 28c | 166.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 23c | 152.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 140.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 137.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 106.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 26c | 105.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 50c | 101.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 38c | 99.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 57c | 98.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 90.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 31c | 72.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 21c | 71.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 22c | 69.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 69.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 41c | 68.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 29c | 68.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 32c | 67.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 61.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked No | 73c | 59.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 59.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 58.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 56.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 23c | 55.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 55.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 54.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 50.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 27c | 47.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 55c | 47.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…4781backed Yes | 29c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 43.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5fa8backed Yes | 44c | 42.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 49c | 39.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 29c | 37.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 34.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 80c | 33.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 60c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 54c | 32.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 56c | 31.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 30.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…04e1backed No | 57c | 29.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 29.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 66c | 28.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 70c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 54c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 75c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 71c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…941bbacked No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.