Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776d0634830119ddc1782e3c269e9fee22847bfe5cc54b791a34451f4a75f72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 860.34$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.04 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 726.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 289.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 225.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 177.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 163.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 161.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 105.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 102.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 66c | 99.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…f896backed Yes | 40c | 98.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 95.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 69c | 94.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 94.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 92.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 91.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 35c | 79.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 36c | 78.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 73.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 72.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 71.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 46c | 68.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 80c | 66.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…4781backed Yes | 19c | 64.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 29c | 59.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 58.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 57.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 22c | 56.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 47c | 54.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 62c | 51.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 33c | 50.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…247dbacked No | 73c | 49.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 66c | 47.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 41.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 36.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 65c | 36.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 56c | 29.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 59c | 27.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 24.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…04e1backed No | 71c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 43c | 23.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.