CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d7e56fbc9a7968a27fd7418f703eb41a90a908a6421d5e63120fbff595cced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Astralis, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Heroic | 76c | 800$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.77 | 500 | 54.4%272 W · 228 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Astralis | 24c | 698.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Astralis | 28c | 210.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Astralis | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…dd20backed Astralis | 29c | 98.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 219 | 42.5%93 W · 126 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Astralis | 25c | 86.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Astralis | 27c | 86.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Heroic | 73c | 57.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Astralis | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Astralis | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Heroic | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group BHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Heroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.