Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e0afdf9156b154c9960c34b37c731da3a699bd48454fd27404ed996d9fe0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 63c | 303.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 30c | 240.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 239.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 191.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed Yes | 76c | 188.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 151.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 137.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 133$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 112.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 37c | 102.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 98.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 85.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 73.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 73c | 69.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 68.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 67.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 61.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 57.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 66c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 52.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 47.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 58c | 47.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 42.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 72c | 41.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 74c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 68c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 27.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 27.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 26.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 72c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 57c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 20.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…9f40backed Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 20.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 60c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…95d5backed No | 77c | 13.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.