Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222717611b2c181a4ceedcb1a9019eda29ac96e18824670d286a0b90a6ddd0d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vekicof Pegula, Vekic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,484 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Pegula | 70c | 600$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Vekic | 30c | 460.63$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.44 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Pegula | 70c | 458.97$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.28 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Vekic | 30c | 427.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Vekic | 29c | 258.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Pegula | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Vekic | 39c | 128.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Vekic | 34c | 106$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pegula | 61c | 91.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed82…b8cfbacked Pegula | 71c | 75.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Donna VekicJessica Pegula won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs VekicVekic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.