Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22323e4096e55cdc4f9e5c4aabb95242eddc970b465aa0927b4d38903720aa8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 10,005$5,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.33 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 8,458$5,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.59 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 3,581$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.65 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 27c | 3,118$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.78 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 53c | 1,698$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.11 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 1,241$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.32 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 63c | 808.98$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.11 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 50c | 790.77$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 47c | 761$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 566$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 278.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 229$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 69c | 122$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 33c | 122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…8682backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…7b8dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.