Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4541f535c7d87b541a76a993f2a4cef5afaa7b7ab6d1f78621c538cf49222f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.75 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 75c | 1,067$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 45c | 803.61$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.98 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 641.62$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.01 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 49c | 122.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Under | 23c | 101$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 56c | 99.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 39c | 98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 83.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 47c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 68.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 28c | 68.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 23c | 65.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Over | 49c | 59.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 61c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.