Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x226b05754fdc668e9f61ff0bfc4f09c5228f49f51c60284efbd598ce6a76fcc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 2,672$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.69 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,017$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.83 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 75c | 1,889$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.22 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 26c | 1,538$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 24c | 1,346$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.09 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 1,266$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.2 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 78c | 999.45$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 710$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 22c | 455.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 75c | 301.83$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 26c | 247.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…59b1backed No | 76c | 209$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked No | 74c | 161$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 24c | 102.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 99.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…588bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 74c | 69.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 74c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 16.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-28?No won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.