Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb53ac7a0772bfda4c6a2b2017c961778b588c8f019a05f599a8cd9a1b6bd377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 13,042$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.75 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4c8cbacked No | 79c | 10,875$8,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 4,500$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 22c | 1,302$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 11c | 1,139$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 75c | 974$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 25c | 927.44$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 861.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 76c | 501.8$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 24c | 501.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 482.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed No | 74c | 274.54$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 9c | 255.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Yes | 24c | 219.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…482ebacked Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 26c | 130.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…8223backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…f50bbacked Yes | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 77c | 89.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 25c | 79.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 22c | 77.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 25c | 70.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 22c | 59.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 77c | 51.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 51.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Yes | 22c | 49.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…c02abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…007dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-28?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-11-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.