Premier League · resolved market
Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2289b76d480ff1d96429a4d67bbf52e530b140465180e5c8572d764208fc20d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,253$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.15 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 66c | 706.21$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.09 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 601.81$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.65 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 425.24$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.84 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 263$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 41c | 117$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over | 41c | 112$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Over | 41c | 103$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Over | 41c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 30c | 56.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Under | 70c | 56.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 32.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Under | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Under | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Under | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Swansea City AFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.