Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a534c631d2080f1a07400353fdbef0d86809416919e7b25d01db79f75cadaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 404.16$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 398.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 160.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 51c | 155.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 136.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 128.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 112.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 105.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 41c | 99.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 50c | 92.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 92.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 54c | 90.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 89.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 75.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 50c | 53.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 41.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 41.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked No | 55c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 37.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 28c | 36.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 33.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 40c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 54c | 24.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 20.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…1edbbacked Yes | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 17.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.