Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f682f0e5f22e10ae4198ac7e3caae5c93b104b877b6ff062cc443bb5dd8839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 35c | 486.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 392.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 31c | 335.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 21c | 272.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 260.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 64c | 181.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 165.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 21c | 155.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 151.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 149.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 128.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 14c | 123.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 112.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 12c | 108.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 84.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 84.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 56c | 83.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 79.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 67c | 72.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 72.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed No | 80c | 62.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 30c | 55.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 54.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 48.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 31c | 39.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 37.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 37.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 36c | 35.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 35.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 67c | 29.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…c8cfbacked No | 72c | 19.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 77c | 19.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 18.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.