Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22aec4446791b851c2265494a3de2b6413cefe7d090dd53dc3b18fde8e557c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona State Sun Devilsof Baylor Bears, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,801 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Baylor Bears | 57c | 4,819$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.52 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…5ffabacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 3,919$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…63b1backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 49c | 3,885$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Baylor Bears | 50c | 3,484$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756.98 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 42c | 2,673$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 1,994$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.04 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 43c | 1,576$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Baylor Bears | 5c | 1,174$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 991.25$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.63 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 392.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 381.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 341.13$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…bbbbbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 230.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 207.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…565fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 199.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…e72bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 196.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…41fcbacked Baylor Bears | 51c | 166.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14de…414ebacked Baylor Bears | 58c | 119.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baylor Bears | 52c | 95.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 54.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Baylor Bears | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 44.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 45c | 43.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf602…c172backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 41.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 44c | 40.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Baylor Bears | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 49c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5)this page
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 152.5Over won
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 153.5Over won
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 154.5Over won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-4.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-5.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.