TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Baylor Bears (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Arizona State Sun Devilsof Baylor Bears, Arizona State Sun Devils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,933

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Arizona State Sun Devils52c24,980$12,990 inWon+$11,989.4124351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Baylor Bears48c13,716$6,551 inLost-$6,550.8912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils52c9,468$4,956 inWon+$4,511.268957.3%51 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Baylor Bears48c4,956$2,379 inLost-$2,379.0390645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Baylor Bears48c4,147$1,991 inLost-$1,991.199244.6%41 W · 51 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Baylor Bears48c3,648$1,751 inLost-$1,750.9789850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Baylor Bears50c2,507$1,250 inLost-$1,249.973444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Baylor Bears48c2,012$966 inLost-$965.8914854.1%80 W · 68 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Baylor Bears48c1,328$636 inLost-$635.511,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Baylor Bears51c971.82$496 inLost-$495.638432.1%27 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baylor Bears48c329.36$158 inLost-$158.095,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Baylor Bears48c247.82$119 inLost-$118.9589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Baylor Bears50c137.87$69 inLost-$68.6960954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Baylor Bears48c114.25$55 inLost-$54.8430054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Baylor Bears47c80.24$38 inLost-$37.671,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Baylor Bears48c58.21$28 inLost-$27.9418439.1%72 W · 112 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Baylor Bears48c49.55$24 inLost-$23.794,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Arizona State Sun Devils52c38.13$20 inWon+$18.332652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Arizona State Sun Devils52c19.96$10 inWon+$9.5813561.5%83 W · 52 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.