Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd90938e161560027e8e5dffe8a0281c70b9e7516d1a7fe289cf980307760fff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,236 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 54c | 4,997$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.13 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 46c | 1,517$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.03 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 48c | 1,111$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.72 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 849.96$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.54 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 816.6$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.63 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 46c | 529.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Over | 46c | 474.1$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Over | 46c | 431$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 52c | 377.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.39 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 46c | 316.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 278.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.96 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Over | 46c | 247.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Under | 56c | 184.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.1 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 162.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 46c | 150.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 148.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 46c | 129.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 46c | 108.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 16c | 88.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 46c | 75.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 67.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 47c | 58.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…6cc9backed Under | 57c | 52.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 42.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 57c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 46c | 32.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Over | 48c | 24.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Over | 46c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 52c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 154.5this page
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 152.5Over won
- Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-3.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-4.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Baylor Bears (-5.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.