NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22f1c5e1e9ad191e8ef3a4a1c0621516ea4f9a1f5a6f3ae3c6709abc549920c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders | 69c | 972$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.68 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 31c | 677.96$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.71 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 31c | 550.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Capitals | 36c | 359.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.72 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Capitals | 38c | 240.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Islanders | 17c | 228.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Islanders | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Islanders | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Islanders | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Capitals | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Islanders | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 64c | 93.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Islanders | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Islanders | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Islanders | 66c | 73.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Islanders | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Capitals | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Islanders | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Islanders | 61c | 40.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Islanders | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…6f75backed Capitals | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Islanders | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Islanders | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Islanders | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…15e3backed Islanders | 68c | 16.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Islanders | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.