MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230abde7d7a0ee6e1d4be983916ca7db3b07cba49ff90920bbe4679127f44c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof San Diego Padres, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 1,471$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 825.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 11c | 671$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 232.58$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 65c | 216.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 214.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 65c | 169.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 139.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 134.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 121.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 100.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 87.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 73.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 73.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 37.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 36.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Houston Astros | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego PadresHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.