TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$310,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,082 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…8409backed San Diego Padres52c80,412$41,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,809.8726054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros52c41,143$21,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,667.7610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres27c28,207$7,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,569.592,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Houston Astros49c21,427$10,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,927.7710748.6%52 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Houston Astros50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00017652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Houston Astros47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24061947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Houston Astros49c7,143$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,642.8623357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed San Diego Padres29c6,613$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.4895045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros48c6,354$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,312.355,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres24c6,244$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.48,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros47c5,353$2,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.2644749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros73c5,193$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.884,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked San Diego Padres5c5,097$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.769639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Houston Astros71c4,171$2,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.5585645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros74c4,070$3,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.24,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked San Diego Padres52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08027552.4%144 W · 131 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Houston Astros47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5301,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked San Diego Padres23c3,000$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67514050.7%71 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres23c2,814$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.354,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Houston Astros79c2,365$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.591,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb25…62edbacked San Diego Padres5c2,087$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6451…b57abacked Houston Astros49c2,040$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.414841.2%61 W · 87 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked San Diego Padres53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06017150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked San Diego Padres52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed San Diego Padres21c1,919$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5997944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres36c1,916$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.418,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Houston Astros47c1,894$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.9936048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ae…3a84backed San Diego Padres8c1,811$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Houston Astros74c1,455$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.077847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed San Diego Padres18c1,426$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0437941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed San Diego Padres52c1,365$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.171,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres8c1,364$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.049,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros72c1,354$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.138,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59c…e944backed San Diego Padres47c1,330$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros74c1,282$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.182,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Houston Astros74c1,211$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.947358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Diego Padres52c1,163$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.72,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros74c1,115$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.191,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed San Diego Padres5c1,055$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros48c1,045$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.281,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres52c1,019$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.973,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked San Diego Padres52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres51c955.35$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.764,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Houston Astros75c923.41$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4444553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked San Diego Padres20c904.3$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2422831.6%72 W · 156 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Houston Astros48c819$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.8857758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros72c800$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2285,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab2e…c7cfbacked Houston Astros77c782.27$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.662882.1%23 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick76cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed San Diego Padres55c730.4$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros75c724.83$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres51c699$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.491,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e7…1082backed San Diego Padres14c502.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.411442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Houston Astros47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26586653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Houston Astros49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2559048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked San Diego Padres52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26013848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Houston Astros74c438.67$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.72065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros70c431.49$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked San Diego Padres27c398.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.217148%82 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres33c391.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.015,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed San Diego Padres23c381.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7377752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cd…f35fbacked San Diego Padres52c365.38$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d14…663fbacked San Diego Padres51c334$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3416856.5%95 W · 73 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dae…72febacked San Diego Padres52c330.17$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.693855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Houston Astros58c313.27$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9447852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed Houston Astros49c306.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1228152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed San Diego Padres36c302.22$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10821033.3%70 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Houston Astros46c300$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16395850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52de…8f92backed San Diego Padres20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014469.4%100 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed San Diego Padres51c299.97$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9958652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Houston Astros74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.271,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Houston Astros73c264.72$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2160348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres52c262.68$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.256,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked San Diego Padres20c260$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e68…3772backed Houston Astros75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6224947%117 W · 132 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Houston Astros71c241.71$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9725447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres52c240.21$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.912,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres25c234.6$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.532,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed San Diego Padres29c234.07$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3225248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres25c230.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7855758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked San Diego Padres54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011354%61 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed San Diego Padres33c212.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Houston Astros48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked San Diego Padres25c208$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5244556.9%253 W · 192 L+27.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Houston Astros47c204.17$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.211,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Houston Astros71c201.09$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3124252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Houston Astros49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10213453%71 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked Houston Astros65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7012245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked San Diego Padres52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10424246.7%113 W · 129 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Houston Astros76c197.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8844058.9%259 W · 181 L+29.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed Houston Astros65c196.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.69036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b8…aeb8backed San Diego Padres52c189.58$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.582277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Houston Astros71c187.35$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7248660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked San Diego Padres54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013057.7%75 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Houston Astros67c163.08$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8237546.9%176 W · 199 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8204…8fa3backed San Diego Padres9c149.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Houston Astros69c143.94$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0828749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Houston Astros70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8624350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Diego Padres33c141$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5352638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Houston Astros74c135.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1340658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.