MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaecb76e7082b5829a2cc435b0c1e1042bee1131327a270f6acf4d144221de1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 13,699$6,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,754.42 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 12,899$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,399.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 6,912$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,369.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 2,076$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 1,434$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 1,287$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.32 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,272$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,065$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 49c | 654.22$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.57 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 35c | 512.71$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 54c | 425.47$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 50c | 399$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 22c | 282.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 263.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 228$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 50c | 180$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 134.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 50c | 103.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 54c | 71.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 45c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 33c | 57.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 51c | 52.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…2a6cbacked Over | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 30c | 39.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 33c | 38.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 38c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…d97abacked Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 38c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 61c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Under | 50c | 25.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego PadresHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.